GIST Planning

Replace opinion-based roadmaps with evidence-guided planning. Source: Gilad (Evidence Guided).

Workflow

1. Set Goals (Quarterly)

• Derive from North Star input metrics or OKRs
• Format: "Improve [metric] from [current] to [target] by [date]"
• Maximum 3 goals per quarter
• Update canvas/gist.yml goals section

2. Generate Ideas (Ongoing)

• Ideas are hypothetical ways to achieve goals
• Most ideas fail (>80%) -- this is expected and planned for
• Generate many, hold loosely
• Store in canvas/gist.yml idea bank with ICE scores
• Never commit to an idea until evidence supports it

3. Score with ICE + Confidence Meter

Use /ice-score to prioritize. ICE scoring (Ellis; confidence dimension added by Gilad):

• Confidence is NOT gut feel -- it maps to evidence levels
• 0.1 = opinion only | 0.5 = data supports | 0.7 = tested | 0.9 = launched
• Rescore after every experiment

Mycelium uses 0.0-1.0 (adapted from Gilad's 0-10 non-linear Confidence Meter). See /ice-score for details.

4. Design Steps (per top idea)

• Steps are small, time-boxed activities that build evidence
• Each step has: hypothesis, method, success criteria, MoSCoW priority
• Tag each step as Must / Should / Could / Won't (DSDM):
  • Must: Non-negotiable. Delivery fails without this. All REVIEW checks apply.
  • Should: Important. Ship if time allows. All REVIEW checks apply.
  • Could: Nice-to-have. Cut first when timebox runs out. NUDGE checks only.
  • Won't: Explicitly out of scope for this cycle. Documented for future reference.
• Steps follow a confidence ladder: assessment -> exploratory experiment -> feature experiment -> launch
• Each step produces evidence that increases or decreases confidence
• If evidence is negative: pivot or kill the idea (sunk cost is irrelevant)
• For user-facing ideas, frame hypotheses in Lean UX format: "We believe [outcome] for [users] if [change]." (Gothelf)
• When a delivery timebox is exceeded: Flex scope using MoSCoW — cut Could/Won't before compromising Must/Should

5. Execute Tasks (Sprint-level)

• Tasks belong to the CURRENT step only
• Don't plan tasks for future steps
• Standard agile execution

6. Reprioritize (Continuous)

After each step completes:

• Update ICE scores based on new evidence
• Re-rank ideas
• Kill ideas below threshold
• Surface new ideas from discovery work

Shape Up: Appetite Over Estimates

Instead of asking "how long will this take?", ask "how much is this worth?" (Shape Up by Basecamp). Set an appetite — the maximum time you're willing to invest — then design the solution to fit within it. If the solution can't fit, narrow the scope, don't extend the timebox. This connects naturally to MoSCoW: appetite defines the timebox, MoSCoW decides what fits within it.

Anti-Pattern: The Feature Roadmap

If your GIST board looks like a feature list with dates, you're doing it wrong. Goals are outcomes, ideas are hypotheses, steps are experiments.